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THE WEEK AHEAD · NOAA KP + DARKNESS + MOON + CLOUD

Aurora Forecast This Week

The next seven nights for the northern lights: how active NOAA expects the aurora to be each night, and for eight places people watch from, which night this week gives the best chance once darkness, the moon and the cloud forecast are counted.

UPDATED TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2026The week of Oct 27: NOAA’s 3-day forecast peaks at Kp 2.33 on Tue, a quiet spell. For Sat–Mon the 27-day outlook has a largest Kp of 3–5, including a storm-level day; it repeats the Sun’s last rotation, so treat it as a hint. The moon is waning gibbous (94% lit) tonight, and 33% lit by Mon. Best combination of activity, darkness, moon and cloud: Fairbanks on Sat (Kp 4 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 8:50 pm, 38% cloud). Further south, Northern US and Scotland reach the Kp 5 they need during dark hours on Fri, Sat.

This week at a glance

The largest Kp NOAA expects each UTC day: its 3-day forecast first, then its 27-day outlook (lighter, and only a hint). Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm (G1–G5).

  1. Tonight Oct 27Kp 2.33Quiet3-day forecast
  2. Wed Oct 28Kp 1.67Quiet3-day forecast
  3. Thu Oct 29Kp 1.67Quiet3-day forecast
  4. Fri Oct 30Kp 2.33Quiet3-day forecast
  5. Sat Oct 31Kp 5G1Storm watch — G127-day outlook
  6. Sun Nov 1Kp 4Active — look further south27-day outlook
  7. Mon Nov 2Kp 3Worth a look up north27-day outlook

Best night this week, by place

Each night is scored on the forecast Kp against what the place needs, the hours of real darkness (sun more than 12° below the horizon) with the moon down or dim, and Open-Meteo’s cloud forecast over those hours. Times are local; the small row shows each night’s Kp and cloud.

Fairbanks, Alaska needs about Kp 2

Best night: Sat, Oct 31 (Kp 4 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 8:50 pm, 38% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue1.6711%
  2. Wed1.3389%
  3. Thu291%
  4. Fri565%
  5. Sat438%
  6. Sun386%
  7. Mon210%

Yellowknife, Canada needs about Kp 2

Best night: Sat, Oct 31 (Kp 4 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 9:15 pm, 53% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue1.6796%
  2. Wed1.6780%
  3. Thu2.3326%
  4. Fri585%
  5. Sat453%
  6. Sun396%
  7. Mon235%

Tromsø, Norway needs about Kp 1

Best night: Mon, Nov 2 (Kp 3 (outlook), dark 13 h, moonless until 9:35 pm, 95% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue2.3370%
  2. Wed1.6777%
  3. Thu2.3398%
  4. Fri5100%
  5. Sat594%
  6. Sun495%
  7. Mon395%

Abisko & Kiruna, Sweden needs about Kp 2

Best night: Sat, Oct 31 (Kp 5 (outlook), dark 12 h, moon up all night, 62% lit, 91% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue2.3382%
  2. Wed1.6766%
  3. Thu2.3391%
  4. Fri597%
  5. Sat591%
  6. Sun4100%
  7. Mon395%

Rovaniemi, Finland needs about Kp 2

Best night: Fri, Oct 30 (Kp 5 (outlook), dark 12 h, moon up all night, 73% lit, 64% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue2.33100%
  2. Wed1.67100%
  3. Thu2.33100%
  4. Fri564%
  5. Sat5100%
  6. Sun4100%
  7. Mon399%

Reykjavík, Iceland needs about Kp 2

Best night: Sat, Oct 31 (Kp 5 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 7:45 pm, 68% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue2.3383%
  2. Wed1.6791%
  3. Thu2.3340%
  4. Fri578%
  5. Sat568%
  6. Sun4100%
  7. Mon3100%

Northern US (Grand Forks, ND) needs about Kp 5

Best night: Fri, Oct 30 (Kp 5 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 9:35 pm, 91% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue1.6773%
  2. Wed1.6727%
  3. Thu2.3313%
  4. Fri591%
  5. Sat496%
  6. Sun3100%
  7. Mon2100%

Scotland (Inverness) needs about Kp 5

Best night: Sat, Oct 31 (Kp 5 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 8:20 pm, 20% cloud)

Good odds if the sky is clear.

  1. Tue2.3359%
  2. Wed1.6790%
  3. Thu2.3385%
  4. Fri561%
  5. Sat520%
  6. Sun40%
  7. Mon335%

Computed when this page was built on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, with Open-Meteo’s cloud forecast. Your browser refreshes it from NOAA and Open-Meteo.

Cams to keep open this week

Live cameras at the places with the best odds this week, best first. Within each place: live video first, dark now first, least cloud.

Fairbanks, Alaska

Best night Sat, Oct 31: Kp 4 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 8:50 pm, 38% cloud.

  1. Fairbanks All-Sky Cam, Alaska Fairbanks, AK Live video Dark (sun below −12°): 7:41 PM AKDT – 7:36 AM AKDT
  2. Poker Flat all-sky, near Fairbanks Poker Flat Research Range, near Fairbanks, Alaska Snapshot Dark (sun below −12°): 7:36 PM AKDT – 7:36 AM AKDT
  3. Toolik Lake all-sky, Alaska (68.6°N) Toolik Field Station, Brooks Range North Slope, Alaska Snapshot Dark (sun below −12°): 7:41 PM AKDT – 7:46 AM AKDT

Yellowknife, Canada

Best night Sat, Oct 31: Kp 4 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 9:15 pm, 53% cloud.

  1. Churchill, Manitoba, Canada Churchill, Manitoba, Canada Live video Dark (sun below −12°): 7:06 PM CDT – 6:56 AM CDT

Reykjavík, Iceland

Best night Sat, Oct 31: Kp 5 (outlook), dark 12 h, moonless until 7:45 pm, 68% cloud.

  1. Reykjavík sky cam, Iceland Grandi, Reykjavík, Iceland Live video Dark (sun below −12°): 7:16 PM GMT – 7:11 AM GMT
  2. Golden Circle, South Iceland Golden Circle, South Iceland Live video Dark (sun below −12°): 7:11 PM GMT – 7:06 AM GMT
  3. Kirkjufell, Grundarfjörður, Iceland Grundarfjorur, Iceland Snapshot Dark (sun below −12°): 7:21 PM GMT – 7:16 AM GMT

How to use the week ahead

Read the strip for the shape of the week, then your place’s line for the night to aim at. Days one to three come from NOAA’s Kp forecast and are worth acting on; days four to seven come from the 27-day outlook, which only says whether the Sun’s last rotation was active on those dates. If a storm watch appears, it will usually show up in the 3-day forecast two or three days out.

Cloud matters more than a point of Kp. A Kp 2 night with a clear sky in Tromsø or Fairbanks beats a Kp 4 night under overcast, so if your best night here is cloudy, the second-best clear night in the small row is often the better bet. The cloud forecast is a model value for one spot; inland and coastal sites can differ a lot, so check again on the day.

For tonight’s decision use Will I see the northern lights tonight?, which shows the live Kp and the next 24 hours. For a trip weeks away, the best nights calendar gives the next 60 nights of darkness and moon at the same places. To see what the sky is doing now, Aurora Tonight ranks every aurora camera by darkness and cloud.

Questions

How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?

About three days with any confidence. NOAA’s 3-day forecast gives the Kp index in 3-hour blocks; it is good for telling a quiet night from a stormy one and coarse for timing. Beyond that, NOAA’s 27-day outlook repeats the activity of the Sun’s last rotation, which catches recurring coronal-hole streams but not new eruptions. Darkness and the moon, on the other hand, are known exactly.

Which night this week is best for aurora?

It differs by place. A night is good when the forecast Kp reaches the level your latitude needs, the sky is properly dark for long enough, the moon is down or dim, and cloud is thin. This page combines all four for each place and names the best night, then refreshes the numbers in your browser.

What does a G1 storm watch mean for this week?

G1 is NOAA’s minor geomagnetic storm level, Kp 5. At that level aurora can reach Scotland, southern Scandinavia and the northern US border states, and it is bright and overhead in Iceland, Lapland, Alaska and northern Canada. Forecast storms often arrive hours early or late, so watch the live Kp and the cameras on the night.

Kp forecast and 27-day outlook: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. Cloud: Open-Meteo. Darkness and moon: computed with SunCalc. Camera feeds belong to their operators, named on each camera page.

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